Ukraine’s Defeat and the Geopolitical Repercussions: Analyzing Avdiivka’s Fall and NATO’s Role

Avdiivka's fall marks Ukraine's defeat. Analysis reveals NATO's limits, Italy's political shift, and the global impact of Russo-Ukrainian war dynamics.
Avdiivka's Fall

by Alessandro Orsini

The fall of Avdiivka stands as irrefutable proof that Ukraine has been utterly and irrevocably defeated in the war. It’s not just that Ukraine’s counteroffensive was a monumental failure; Zelensky also lost the most crucial battle of the war after replacing Army Commander Zaluzhny with Syrskyi. Despite NATO’s arsenal—Atacms, Himars, Storm Shadow, and Scalp missiles; despite all of NATO’s tanks—Leopards, Abrams, Challengers; despite all of NATO’s missile systems—Samp-T and Patriot; despite hundreds of billions of dollars and cluster bombs, the Ukrainian military is doomed. All it can do now is hold out, waiting for Russia to carve out new territories from its flesh. The question for international security experts today is no longer which territories Zelensky might reclaim, but which ones he will lose. We are witnessing a historically rare phenomenon: the death of a nation by devastation. After two years of conflict, it’s time for a preliminary assessment, which I summarize in five points.

First, the so-called “Putin supporters in Italy” were the most serious and reliable international security analysts who, having accurately assessed the balance of power and the international context, made this prediction as an empirical regularity: “For every NATO bullet Ukraine fires at Russia, Russia will fire ten bullets back at Ukraine.” And so it has happened.

Second, Italy is not a liberal country since the political code has overshadowed the scientific code, violating the balance of powers. Italian rectors have kowtowed to political power, striking down professors who were simply doing their jobs as analysts. As Niklas Luhmann teaches, every social system processes information based on a binary code. The scientific code is “true/false”. University professors should not speak based on what’s beneficial to save their careers, their research centers, or to avoid being violently slandered. They are obliged to speak only what is true. In our case, it was true that Russia overwhelmingly surpasses Ukraine. This needed to be reported to protect Italy’s national interests and the lives of Ukrainian children, but also those of Russian children, whom Zelensky is heavily massacring by shooting at civilians in Donetsk and Belgorod, as undeniable documentation shows.

Third, the European Commission is a group of the corrupt, in the sense defined by sociologist Vilfredo Pareto. According to Pareto’s theory of elites, “corrupt” refers to ruling classes that have lost their guiding function. Ursula von der Leyen acts against Europe’s interests to protect the White House’s interests. Biden has used the war in Ukraine to pursue five main objectives: 1) to separate Europe from Russia; 2) to expand NATO, which has gained new members in Eastern Europe; 3) to expose Europe to the risk of a major war with Russia, making it dependent on American protection; 4) to destroy the North Stream project; 5) to force it to buy more weapons from the United States.

Fourth, all official statistics show that Russia’s military industry far surpasses NATO’s military industry.

Fifth, Minister Crosetto exposes Italy to the risk of two wars, in the Red Sea and with Russia in Ukraine. All this with a navy that is fundamentally disarmed because it lacks missiles, as he himself declared in Parliament. This brings us back to Pareto and prompts reflection on the corruption of the Italian ruling class.

Il Fatto Quotidiano, February 20, 2024


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