Syria’s Collapse Mirrors Libya’s Descent into Chaos

by Tommaso Merlo

The new regent of Syria is named Jolani, and there is a $10 million bounty on his head for terrorism. He is an Islamic jihadist who seems to have obtained Western approval to turn Syria into another Libya, pleasing Israel. In fact, before Jolani even reached Damascus, Netanyahu had already occupied pieces of Syrian territory and bombed at will. He has already begun to act as the master there as well. His aim is to block supplies to Hezbollah and ensure a submissive government in Damascus, paving the way to complete the annexation of Palestine without any hitches. But one step at a time. For now, an Islamic terrorist is preferable to a pro-Palestinian dictator like Assad. And chaos, akin to the Libyan scenario, is better than having an enemy regime in place. If a dangerous caliphate arises, the Americans can level it and start all over again. Broken countries are at least harmless — something learned in Iraq and perfected in Libya.

This seems to be the strategy behind Jolani’s incredible rise — a favor to Israel, but also to the Americans, as their historic enemies, Russia and Iran, are weakened, at least for now. Syria has historically been Russia’s outpost in the Middle East and hosts a strategic military base on the Mediterranean. For Iran, Syria represents the path toward liberating Jerusalem from the Zionists. Everything is on hold, awaiting further developments.

Jolani encountered no resistance on his march toward Damascus, confirming that Assad’s regime had already disintegrated and was artificially sustained by his allies. The timing is also suspicious, as the move started the day after the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel — as if to preempt the Lebanese and catch Russia and Iran off guard, who were focused elsewhere.

As for Assad, he leaves behind no regrets. He was a dictator who inherited power from his father and will be remembered mainly for tightening an already repressive regime and dragging his country into a prolonged and self-destructive civil war. Assad also suffered from poor relations with Turkey, which is involved in this coup. Long-standing issues regarding millions of Syrian refugees at the border and disputes over Kurdish territories were never resolved. After all, someone must have provided Jolani with money, weapons, and, most importantly, political approval to take over an entire country without resistance.

This is evident from Jolani’s first statements, which are surprisingly more moderate compared to his mentors, like Al-Baghdadi and others, hinting at underlying agreements. He talks about “institutions” and an “Islamic state” but claims he doesn’t intend to behead anyone. He mentioned this during an interview without a turban to American media just hours before the takeover — as if to reassure everyone that he doesn’t plan a second Afghanistan. He even seems to want to keep the current prime minister. After all, going from leading a terrorist group to governing a state is a major leap, and he clearly lacks a ruling class.

The problem is that Jolani leads one of the many Islamist factions in Syria that have been killing each other for years. When the race begins to prove who is the truest Muslim, the risk of a Libyan-style gang war is very high. Moreover, millions of moderate Syrians have no desire to live under a cultural burqa. But the Libyan drift appears to be considered a better short-term option than Assad’s regime.

Thus, the loathsome “axis of evil” — Russians, Iranians, and Lebanese — loses a valuable piece, while the “benevolent” axis led by Netanyahu can only rejoice. Israel remains the most predictable player on the scene. Once Hezbollah’s supplies are cut off, it will resume hostilities at the first opportunity, aiming to eradicate that enemy as well. Israel’s goal has remained unchanged for over seventy years: annex the last remnants of Palestine without interference and maintain regional dominance, funded and supported by the Americans.

Today, the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians has an additional tool — a chaotic Syrian territory where refugee camps can be established. However, anything could still happen. Erdogan is particularly at risk; his move is a gamble, as Turkey supports the Palestinian cause publicly while secretly dealing with Netanyahu. Meanwhile, Jordan and Egypt, effectively American dependencies, are under increasing pressure. In these countries, the people and the rulers are at odds, and ultimately, the people tend to prevail.

The world now awaits the reaction of Russia and Iran. But early signs suggest they may accept Syria’s Libyan drift, which ultimately allows everyone to grab a piece of the country and pursue their own interests while local factions tear each other apart. So, let’s wish the new president Jolani the best of luck and wait for further developments.