by Pino Arlacchi
Trump’s inaugural address and his first executive orders typify the debut of a populist leader promising to rescue the people from their perceived plight and lead them toward a path of rebirth.
How many times have we seen this dismal spectacle? From Mussolini to Hitler, from Berlusconi to today’s xenophobic European leaders, countless figures have promised national greatness and prosperity through their personal charisma, only to collapse ignominiously—and often tragically—under the weight of economic crises, wars, and the betrayal of the very interests that initially supported them.
It is true that Trump came to power through democratic elections. However, his rise only reinforces the primary argument against elective democracy. Plato was the first to articulate this concern, addressing an Athenian Agora plagued by demagogues serving the one percent of their time (to which Plato himself belonged).
Electoral processes are vulnerable to irrational forces because they assume voters possess the ability to assess candidates and platforms—a capacity clearly lacking. Churchill’s quip underscores this point: “The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.” Yet this is tempered by another of his remarks: democracy may be flawed, but it remains the least bad option.
Democracy’s vulnerability lies in its susceptibility to manipulation by oligarchies that exploit low political engagement and widespread misinformation. However, this only works up to a point, as the eventual disasters of populist policies often bring voters to their senses—though not before paying a steep price.
One of the most superficial interpretations of Trump’s success attributes it to a reaction against unchecked immigration and “woke” culture, as though these were not the familiar scapegoats of a tired demagogic and fascist tradition.
The most vacuous commentators even argue that the media tycoons who turned pro-Trump—after previously supporting Democrats—did so because they possess “special antennas” to detect anti-gay, anti-foreigner, and anti-establishment sentiment in deep America. In reality, this is nothing more than the classic phenomenon of jumping on the winner’s bandwagon, a pattern seen countless times.
Why will Trump’s trajectory end like that of his European predecessors? Because his political formula is a shoddy and deceitful response to the resentment of a distressed and demoralized populace burdened by crushing challenges: the impoverishment of the middle and working classes, declining quality of life, insecurity about the future, and the erosion of fundamental rights like health, work, and personal dignity.
Trump promises a new golden age to an American populace whose psychological and physical decline is alarming. Many Italian commentators discussing the U.S. cling to a vision of an American society that disappeared fifty years ago. Research from prestigious U.S. universities seeks to explain why a population once among the longest-lived, healthiest, and most optimistic in the world (until the 1970s) has transformed into a society plagued by health crises. Life expectancy in the U.S. is now shrinking annually instead of growing as it does in much of the world: Americans live 6.5 years less than Italians (76.4 vs. 82.9 years) and 3.7 years less than Europeans (80.1 years).
Today’s Americans live almost two and a half years less than in 2010 because they live poorly. Their physical and mental health is in shambles due to rising poverty, legalized hard drugs (e.g., fentanyl), suicides, alcoholism, obesity, and PTSD (largely from the aftermath of wars).
Opioid overdoses have become the leading cause of death for Americans under 50, with over 100,000 fatalities annually (compared to 7,000 in Europe), equating to two Vietnam Wars lost every year, alongside 10 million regular users (fewer than one million in Europe). Suicide rates are 45% higher than the European average and rising, defying a global downward trend. Homicide rates, while declining, remain five times higher than in Europe and ten times higher than in Italy—not to mention private acts of violence. Around 16 million Americans (5% of the population) suffer from severe stress disorders, a legacy of decades of militarism and foreign aggression. In the world’s richest country, infant mortality has been rising since 2019, and in 2023, it was nearly triple that of northern Italy (5.4 vs. 1.9 per 1,000 live births). The homeless population has reached nearly two million, with California particularly overwhelmed.
A population’s stature mirrors its income and health levels. Data show that the tall, lean, vigorous American of 1950s Hollywood films exists only in the dreams of some misguided Italian journalists. The average height of U.S. males is now 3–8 centimeters shorter than that of Europeans, having stagnated since the 1960s, alongside well-being, health, and much else. Modern Americans are shorter, heavier, and more vulnerable than Europeans.
These data do not come from the radical American left (now virtually extinct) but from scholars like Putnam (Harvard), Deaton (Princeton), and a host of demographers, historians, sociologists, and economists ignored by mainstream media. Their studies reveal that the degradation of the human and natural fabric of American society has paralleled the degradation of its economy—now dominated by financial capital and lacking essential infrastructure for renewal—as well as environmental deterioration and the collapse of basic social cohesion, the lifeblood of any civilization.
Rebuilding such a shattered system requires time, significant resources, and complex, forward-looking political projects. While America does not lack time or resources—it remains a first-rate power with ample natural and technical assets—it lacks the necessary plans.
Regenerating the U.S. would require comprehensive strategies and credible visions for the future, akin to those that rescued American capitalism in the 1920s and 1930s and revived it after 1945, under the guise of a global governing force. These strategies, imperial in nature, were at least suited to the challenges of their time, effective, and conducive to prosperity, even if at others’ expense.
Trump’s empty rhetoric about immigrants, trade competitors, renewable energy, and diversity bears no resemblance to such strategies. But the paranoid style of American politics is a problem for that nation’s people.
What matters to us is whether Trumpian populism will meet a peaceful or violent end outside U.S. borders.
Il Fatto Quotidiano, 28 gennaio 2025
