Zelensky has obtained permission to strike Russian territory with NATO weapons, and Putin’s response will depend on four possible assessments. He might downplay the military impact of the missiles, react with disproportionate emotion, adopt a preemptive nuclear strategy, or change tactics by invading Kyiv again. The increasingly dangerous war sees Tajani and Crosetto as main culprits for the catastrophe, accused of fueling the conflict without initiating any diplomatic efforts.
* * *
by Alessandro Orsini
Zelensky has been authorized to strike Russian territory with NATO weapons. Putin’s reaction will depend on the prevailing assessment in the Kremlin. The main assessments can be fourfold.
The first is military. It is possible that Putin will assess that NATO missiles will inflict limited damage on his forces. If this assessment prevails, the war will not undergo substantial changes. Russia will continue to destroy Ukraine with its usual “incremental” strategy. Zelensky has a limited number of Storm Shadows, Scalp, and Atacms missiles. Some of these will miss their targets, some will be shot down, and some will hit. The missiles that hit can destroy a barracks, an ammunition depot, or down an aircraft. Not much more than this. NATO missiles cannot force Russia to surrender. In reality, no NATO weapon can cause Russia’s defeat because Putin has 6,000 nuclear warheads. Russia, in Ukraine, is simply unbeatable. The European Union, having a failed and corrupt leadership, has gotten itself into a war it can only lose.
The second assessment is emotional. It is possible that the Russians, despite the relatively limited damage, will have a disproportionate emotional reaction, finding confirmation in the thesis that NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe, the Baltic States, and Georgia was designed to encircle and subdue them. Putin might consider striking Ukraine with tactical nuclear warheads under the push of this exorbitant emotional charge, which would transform the simple downing of an aircraft into the prelude to Russia’s destruction. Historical judgments would be overturned. Putin would risk receiving the same accusation as Yeltsin: the accusation of not having defended Russia from NATO’s expansion. NATO humiliated Yeltsin with the 1999 bombing of Serbia; Putin would be humiliated by NATO’s bombing by Ukrainian hands in 2024. Putin might use tactical nuclear warheads also to preserve the significance of his political life, which is the resurrection of Russia.
The third assessment is strategic. In this case, Putin assesses that the best way to avoid World War III is to strike Ukraine with nuclear warheads before NATO sends its troops. Since the Russian leadership is determined to plunge the world into nuclear war to avoid a defeat in Ukraine, Putin might use nuclear weapons against Ukraine to avoid using them against Italy, France, Germany, and England.
There is also a fourth scenario to consider. Putin might change his “incremental” strategy to target Kyiv by breaking through the front from Belarus again. In this case, Putin would abandon his deliberately “slow” strategy to switch to a “fast” strategy. The slow strategy is based on the assumption, confirmed by empirical evidence, that time works in favor of Russia against Ukraine, as this column has said a thousand times since the first day of the war against the completely erroneous predictions of Corriere della Sera.
In any case, what happens will depend on the fighting; we have to wait. The war in Ukraine is becoming increasingly dangerous. Guido Crosetto* and Antonio Tajani** must be counted among the main culprits of this catastrophe and those that may occur. Tajani, a wolf in sheep’s clothing, and Crosetto have done nothing but send weapons, condemning diplomacy. The world walks on the edge of an abyss also because of them. Crosetto and Tajani, similar to two sorcerer’s apprentices who no longer control the forces of hell they have summoned, claim to have worked for peace, full of fear. But it’s false; they have only worked for war. They have never initiated any diplomatic effort. They have always proposed to solve the war with war.
Il Fatto Quotidiano, June 2, 2024
* Minister of Defence of Italy
** Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy
