The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, by an Israeli missile in Tehran, highlights the futility of leadership decapitation in long-standing, resilient terrorist organizations like Hamas. Studies indicate that such actions do not dismantle these organizations but rather reinforce their structure and resolve. Despite extensive Israeli efforts, Hamas militants remain loyal and even more motivated, as evidenced by increased recruitment following Haniyeh’s death. This situation underlines the complex, entrenched conflict between Israel and Hamas, where force and violence perpetuate a cycle of resistance and retaliation.
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Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was killed by an Israeli guided missile in Tehran, where he was attending the inauguration ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian. In academic circles, the first relevant question is whether leadership decapitation works. More precisely, the question is: “Does killing leaders cause the death of their terrorist organizations?” The news is not good for Israel. Studies on terrorism indicate that leadership decapitation does not yield the desired results with long-standing terrorist organizations that have substantial popular support and ample material and immaterial resources. Powerful terrorist organizations are resilient: when one leader dies, another takes their place. This is what happened with Bin Laden. Many in the West thought that killing Bin Laden would cause the death of al Qaeda. It didn’t happen because al Qaeda was a powerful and resilient terrorist organization. Bin Laden was replaced by al-Zawahiri. Leadership decapitation works better with small, young terrorist organizations with few resources. In these cases, killing the leader more often leads to the group’s disbandment. Hamas will not suffer significant setbacks because the leaders of terrorist organizations opposed to the United States live with the awareness that they will be killed and arrange for succession well in advance of their deaths. When they assume leadership, the heads of powerful terrorist organizations designate successors to avoid internal conflicts. The founder of Hamas, Ahmed Yassin, was killed on March 22, 2004, by an Israeli missile. Hamas then grew significantly, executing one of the largest attacks in the history of terrorism nineteen years later.
It is too early for a comprehensive assessment. However, Hamas has so far proven to be one of the strongest terrorist organizations ever. This provisional judgment rests on two sociologically observable facts. The first fact is that, despite Israel having razed the Gaza Strip, Hamas militants do not betray their leadership. If anything, they defend it to the point of martyrdom. According to available information, Haniyeh was killed due to his own carelessness. Iran is full of Israeli spies. By attending the inauguration ceremony of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Haniyeh made himself traceable. He was identified and killed. The second fact is that Haniyeh’s killing, rather than causing discouragement among Hamas militants, is creating great collective excitement, which will likely increase recruitment for Hamas.
Regarding the relationship between Israel and Hamas, we can say what Marx said about the relationship between capitalists and proletarians: the former cannot exist without creating the latter. Similarly, Israel cannot exist without creating terrorism because the State of Israel, as demonstrated by the broken arms of Palestinian children during the first intifada that began in 1987, speaks only the language of force and violence. Marx predicted that the proletarians would overcome the capitalists. Israel will not be overcome by terrorists, but it will continue to produce them, with little profit. Finally, in assessing the repercussions of Haniyeh’s killing on Hamas, it is essential to distinguish the leader from the leadership. Israel has killed a leader; the leadership of Hamas remains intact. The proof that Israel has again failed in its mission to eradicate terrorism is the genocide trial it faces before the International Court of Justice of the UN. And the Gaza tunnels continue to operate, mostly unscathed.
Il Fatto Quotidiano, August 1, 2024
