Ukraine’s military strategy in Kursk has faltered, failing to achieve the goal of forcing Russia to divert troops from the Donbass. Zelensky’s repeated military failures have left Ukraine weakened and desperate for more Western support. With Russia holding a significant advantage, doubts are growing about the viability of Ukraine’s efforts. The immense financial and military aid from the West risks being squandered, and the possibility of Zelensky being overthrown looms as skepticism grows among media and analysts.
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by Alessandro Orsini
Kursk isn’t working. The idea of invading Russia to force Putin to shift troops from the Donbass has, so far, not yielded the expected results. Since the Ukrainians entered Kursk on August 6, the Russians have done nothing but capture new territories in the Donbass. As I write this, Zelensky is ordering an evacuation in Pokrovsk.
Putin’s strategy in Kursk is based on three moves: 1) halt the Ukrainian advance; 2) let them settle in; 3) decimate them with airstrikes. The chances that Zelensky’s foray into Kursk will end in yet another disaster are high, given his astounding record of failures. Since the beginning of the counteroffensive on June 5, 2023, until its conclusion in early October, everything Zelensky devised against the Russians has been a failure. So much so that, once the counteroffensive ended, the Ukrainian army found itself bled dry, while the Russian army even invaded Kharkiv. The Ukrainian counteroffensive, conceived by Zelensky to capture new territories, ended with the loss of many more and an immediate call to recruit a huge number of civilians—500,000—to build a new army. All this was accompanied by a desperate cry: “I’ve run out of weapons and ammunition!” Zelensky has initiated the military administration of the occupied territories. The question arises: how does he expect to maintain them without air superiority? The skies are Russian. Zelensky is asking his allies to authorize the use of long-range missiles. To get his way, he resorts to the familiar strategy of presenting them with a fait accompli, bending their reluctance with the usual: “Don’t you see the Russians are killing all the Ukrainians in Kursk? Authorize me, or you are complicit.” Today he asks for authorization to destroy Russia; tomorrow, he will invoke it to avoid being destroyed.
Zelensky has gone all in. If Putin halts the advance in Donbass to move soldiers to Kursk, it’s over. If he doesn’t, the Ukrainians in Kursk will have to fend off the Fab-3000 bombs with their bare hands. The Patriots and Samp-Ts in that land wouldn’t last long. The Ukrainians control only a few square kilometers that the Russians know like the back of their hands. The first missile launched by a Samp-T would almost certainly be the last.
Let’s use our imagination—essential in scientific endeavors—and imagine that Kursk ends in yet another disaster. What would happen to Zelensky? According to some analysts, he risks being overthrown. But the coup plotters would first have to secure the consent of the White House, without whose money they would fall quickly. Biden would defend Zelensky with all his might. The Ukrainians must hold out in Kursk until the November election in the United States. Trump is ready to blame Kamala Harris for all the defeats. The one at Kursk would be the greatest because it was built on the $75.1 billion disbursed by Biden, to which must be added the $23.3 billion recently approved by Congress. Since the start of the war until today, the EU and other European countries (the UK, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland) have given Zelensky €110.2 billion. At the last EU budget summit, another €77 billion was promised. Adding American dollars to European euros, the sum is astronomical. This mind-boggling amount risks being burned in a single hand of poker. The great poker player wins without cards against opponents loaded with points. But bluffing requires that the cards remain unknown to the players. In this case, everyone knows the cards Putin and Zelensky are holding. Russia has the soldiers to open new fronts, and Ukraine does not. The Russian armed forces consist of about 2,210,000 people, of whom at least 1,320,000 are military personnel. Ukraine is running out of soldiers, and many European Union countries are running out of money, with Germany in recession. Before long, Trump could be dealing the cards.
The question remains the same: if the Ukrainian army has never won a battle against the Russians from February 24, 2022, to today, when it was at full strength, how can anyone think it will emerge victorious from Kursk after being severely weakened? There has never been a Bakhmut, a Mariupol, or an Avdiivka in favor of the Ukrainians. Can we imagine that the battle of Kursk, after its predictable ups and downs, will be won by Zelensky? There is only one positive note in this story: the Italian media have abandoned the easy triumphalism of the past. In 2022-2023, even the smallest Ukrainian advance triggered collective delirium that spilled over into this column. Today, the invasion of Kursk creates more concern than excitement.
Il Fatto Quotidiano, August 17, 2024
