Is a Major Middle Eastern Conflict Inevitable?

Netanyahu’s show of force toward Iran signals growing tensions. Tehran’s response may determine if restraint or escalation prevails in the Middle East.

by Tommaso Merlo

Not even in kindergarten. Netanyahu just had to make his “territorial marking” all the way to Iran to show that he’s tough, that Israel is the big shot in the neighborhood. But despite all the grandstanding, his action barely grazed military targets, completely avoiding civilian or nuclear sites. There may have been behind-the-scenes negotiations to keep things from escalating too far. Now it’s Tehran’s turn to decide. They have three options: ignore the Zionist bully and continue their war of attrition, launch a third missile attack—more intense but still symbolic—or take the bait and let the situation spiral. No one wants a war, but it’s been simmering for years, and without American interference, Israel might not even be on the map by now, leaving room for Palestine. Iran has warned it will retaliate strongly against any further Israeli attacks. We’ll see if Tehran leans toward diplomacy or military action, and whether there’s any “adult” still around to influence their decision.

For the Americans and their mainstream media, Israel’s action is just “self-defense,” rather than another delirious move by Netanyahu and his fanatical associates. They’ve long schemed to use America as a means to realize their Zionist fantasy of Greater Israel, buying off politicians and media, raking in U.S. taxpayer dollars, spouting fantasies. And the fact that Israel didn’t even wait for the U.S. presidential election suggests they find this moment particularly ripe. Biden, a longtime ally, is now a political nonentity, which Netanyahu happily exploits. Trump, though pro-Israel in rhetoric, is hardly a reliable partner. So it makes sense to strike now, with key players in Washington in their pocket and the influence of the Jewish lobby at an all-time high.

But geopolitics aside, Israel has barely managed to contain Hamas, with its makeshift army confined to a tiny strip of land with no supplies. The only result has been a shameful massacre of innocents, shattering decades of Zionist propaganda and refocusing global attention on Palestine. Lebanon, too—bombings and massacres of civilians, and nothing gained. Hezbollah has only intensified its attacks, while every Israeli incursion into Lebanese soil ends in disaster, yet another strategic failure. Dropping bombs from the sky is easy, but it doesn’t win wars, especially when you’re fundamentally in the wrong. The same goes for Iran, a massive country with ten times Israel’s population, long prepared for conflict and backed by strategic alliances with Russia and the BRICS coalition. Israel barks but can’t bite; without its American patron, it’s kept on a tight leash. Yet it continues to harass its neighbors, raising the question of how much longer this can last. Many might conclude that only a decisive war could put an end to a problem that has plagued the Arab world, and beyond, for over seventy years.

As for negotiations, they are impossible with Zionists, who don’t want to negotiate but to impose their will through violence. They have no real interest in a resolution with the Palestinians; their “solution” has been the same since 1948, and it’s on full display today in northern Gaza: brutal annexation, ethnic cleansing, or forced migrations. So, to emerge from today’s crisis, there are few options. Either Netanyahu’s Zionist Israel collapses, allowing sane minds in Tel Aviv to step up—potentially even through a coup. Or the international community severs the toxic bond between Israel and the U.S., restoring international law and imposing an end to the genocide and a two-state solution. Otherwise, escalation looms toward the “final war” that Israel has been courting for a year, which for Netanyahu and his allies could mean finally reaping what they’ve sown for decades.

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