The Americans have filled Israel‘s warehouses with bombs, and Israel is spreading death and destruction even among Lebanese civilians. This is what they call “escalation for de-escalation,” according to Tel Aviv’s strategists. In other words, they want to scare Hezbollah into stopping their attacks on northern Galilee, allowing the displaced Israelis to return home. Meanwhile, for the past year, Nasrallah has been repeating that if Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza, they would follow suit. But that’s hardly the case. Netanyahu and his accomplices haven’t paused the genocide in Gaza for even a single day and have blocked any agreement with Hamas. Accepting Nasrallah’s proposal, without having achieved any military goals in Gaza aside from sheer revenge, would have been a double and very serious defeat for them.
Israel, after all, traditionally doesn’t negotiate. Either you do as they say, or they attack until you surrender. The Palestinians know this fascio-Zionism all too well. For Israelis, compromise is synonymous with defeat—they don’t want to lower themselves to the level of people they consider inferior and who, in their eyes, should simply disappear. And anyone who dares to intervene is automatically labeled an anti-Semite or a terrorist. Yet the problem along the Israel-Lebanon border is real, with Hezbollah still able to strike in the future. Israel wants a security zone, which was foreseen by a UN resolution following the 2006 war but has never been implemented. It’s unclear what the Italian contingent is even doing in those parts.
But since Netanyahu and his accomplices are pathological liars, the bombings and terrorist attacks by radio in Lebanon might just be another attempt at escalation for escalation’s sake. The aim would be to provoke Hezbollah into reacting violently enough to convince the Americans to directly join the conflict. After all, carpet-bombing from the air hasn’t managed to defeat Hamas, let alone Hezbollah, which is far better trained, equipped, and spread across a much larger territory. It’s also hard to imagine that Hezbollah hasn’t anticipated these now-classic Israeli bombings after decades of preparation. So far, Lebanon and Iran have calibrated their reactions to avoid a regional conflict, knowing it’s Netanyahu’s dream—he’s both scared and in a hurry. Without the Americans, he’s finished, and his time is running out.
An Israeli ground invasion also seems unlikely or at least held as a last resort. Military analysts believe Hezbollah is significantly superior on its own turf, especially against an Israeli army that is exhausted and stretched across multiple fronts. Hezbollah would be better off not reacting but continuing a war of attrition, possibly extending it to the whole of Galilee. This would allow them to keep the Americans out while watching Netanyahu’s regime implode. However, one must also consider how much devastation the Lebanese can endure. Civilian victims might blame Hezbollah for their suffering or turn against them if they don’t retaliate adequately. Tel Aviv’s strategists are counting on this too. It’s a strategy of permanent escalation that ignores the situation at home. What was supposed to be the Jewish paradise has turned into their hell. The Israeli state can’t even provide the basic security and stability it has historically promised its settlers. After a year of war, it’s on its knees—politically, socially, and economically. And if the military front collapses as well, the end could be near.
Last night, sirens wailed in Galilee, with over a million Israelis locked in bunkers, more displaced, and panic attacks spreading. This is the longest and most devastating war in the country’s history, with no political solution in sight. They stubbornly repeat the same failed military recipes they’ve used for decades—in Gaza, the Occupied Territories, and even in Lebanon. The problems are worsening instead of being resolved, and the country has never been so weak and isolated. Yet they continue to impose their will through violence, as they did when they first landed. They continue to refuse to treat others as equals and negotiate. They cannot grasp that the only real strategic solution is peace.
